As a longtime China analyst, I am curious as to the thoughts of the folks out there on what you view as China's role in the world in 10 yrs?.....20 yrs? And the US role vis-a-vie china?
I'll chime in later, but for now I am just interested to hear what you all say....
Hmmm, personally, I'm just tired of spending 3-4 months a year there. They've got a LONG way to go. Their infrastructure is completely decrepit and on the verge of breaking. There is a complete break between classes there with the majority being just absolutely destitutely poor, a small middle class, and an extremely small but extremely wealthy upper class. The road and transportation system are so lacking, it will be very difficult for them to grow and be efficient in it. Those are offset by the drastically lower labor costs but should the people there begin to see more and more of the outside world, their expectations will grow and the social system there (healthcare, transportation, monetary, communication) are simply nowhere close to the task.
I think India is a better bet as they have a vastly superior education system and are essentially a generation ahead.
Oh yeah, and what's with the driving? Holy hell, don't pull into the path of an oncoming blue truck hoping he moves out of the way. No wonder only 2/1000 people have a car (America is somewhere around 985/1000) yet they have 10X our highway fatality rate. They also have 5X our population, but that only works out to 10/1000. I feel fortunate I've only been in 5 accidents there (all in Taxi's).
Hmmm, personally, I'm just tired of spending 3-4 months a year there. They've got a LONG way to go. Their infrastructure is completely decrepit and on the verge of breaking. There is a complete break between classes there with the majority being just absolutely destitutely poor, a small middle class, and an extremely small but extremely wealthy upper class. The road and transportation system are so lacking, it will be very difficult for them to grow and be efficient in it. Those are offset by the drastically lower labor costs but should the people there begin to see more and more of the outside world, their expectations will grow and the social system there (healthcare, transportation, monetary, communication) are simply nowhere close to the task.
I think India is a better bet as they have a vastly superior education system and are essentially a generation ahead.
Oh joy, I leave again Tuesday for 6 more weeks.
My $0.02
Where in China do you go? What do you do there?
Just interested- my take is VASTLY different after living and working for a year and a half there for the American Chamber of Commerce....and a few months there on and off since...and two years as a China analyst out of country....
Just interested- my take is VASTLY different after living and working for a year and a half there for the American Chamber of Commerce....and a few months there on and off since...and two years as a China analyst out of country....
I spend the majority of my time just outside Ningbo (South of Shanghai) doing a factory startup (equipment installation and personnel training) with a couple trips to Zhuhai, several Shanghai, and Hangzhou (BEAUTIFUL place). My take is a bit more from the industrial side as it is tremendously difficult to get anything done. When you ask and get the answer of tomorrow, all that means is not today. High grade, high pressure concrete is simply not available. It's quite different from America in that American functions based on rules. You apply for a permit, based on the qualifications and procedures/conformance, you get the permit. You ship equipment over, and based on ships, trucking company availability, municipal inspections, etc. you get your equipment. In China, absolutely NOTHING happens unless you know the right people. We waited 3 weeks for equipment to be delivered "tomorrow". Finally we enlisted the aid of our consultants, bam, the local offical called and our equipment was delivered 1 hour later. It's a different environment which is acceptable, but I honestly believe it's a tremendous dis-advantage. The complete lack of IP protection or reprocussions are another point of contention there. I believe business is there for manufacturing only for cost reasons, no other. Should that cost advantage begin to wane or be offset by the infrastructure failures, so will the interest in China.
I'm in the architecture/construction business and our firm has a small office in Shanghai. We also have offices in Kaoshiung, Taipei, and Bangkok.
I haven't been there . . . yet, but from my experience in dealing with architecture and new commerical buildings out there, I think Shanghai will surpass Manhattan in terms of being the ultra cosmopolitan city. They are sooooo ambitious. They want the latest in state of the art technology and they'll pay for it.
It is true that you have to be connected to get anything done in Shanghai or Beijing. No doubt about it. But once you get that okay, you are good to go.
Our firm gets some of our steel fabricated in Kaoshiung or Bangkok and shipped over here, that's how we hold our edge. Same thing goes for glass. The new SEC Headquarters on Station Place in Washington D.C. which has a state of the art double-curved glass facade and skylight has a 60 foot truss that was fabricated in Bangkok.
China is booming. I don't know much about the social inequalities that occur, nor can I say that the situation is improving for the peasants, the farmers, or the people in the country. After all, it is still a communist country. I've gotten to know a few recent immigrants to the U.S. too. Out of 3, do you know that none of them really know what went on in Tiananmen Square in July 1989? I was shocked. The Communist goverment has put such a spin on it and blatantly covered up what all the outsiders saw.
I wish I could say that life for the poorer classes were getting better. I suspect that the rich are getting richer and the poorer are getting poorer, but once again, I haven't been there yet.
What I can say is that there economy is getting stronger and the Chinese are willing to do business with Americans.
China is should be the world's ecnomic powerhouse within 20 years, if not sooner....
The government officials there are corrupt as hell, most things get accomplish through payoffs....
Seriously, I am surprised by the Chinese work ethic. India too.
My colleague and I joke around all the time that in 20 years, India and China will be pulling the puppet strings attached to America. I joke, but it's not entirely out of the question.
For example, you call up Infiniti about your coupe/sedan on a weekend or late at night. After you navigate your way through the phone menu, you speak to a person. Do you know who you are talking to? Sometimes it's an American in Texas and other times it's a person in Bombay, India. I was surprised when this happened to me, but hey, that's capitalism for you.
All the while, Indians study us by watching Friends and other shows on American T.V. They come to our schools work in our firms and then go back to their native land.
I'm not knocking this at all. I'm not trying to instigate an us vs them mentality. But if the U.S. is not careful, and as the U.S. cuts education spending and becomes complacent with our youth, we will fall behind. It used to be that the nations creme de la creme came to America to study and then assimilate. Now, they study and go back home. If the U.S. is not careful, we could fall behind to the Chinese and India in terms of science, education, and commerce.
I am only speculating and don't have evidence to support my theory, but I get mad every once in a while at the American public school system and I am concerned about everyday classroom education.
I don't doubt India and China will increase their economic power dramatically, but to be honest, there are just too damn many people for either country to achieve even a shred of the "equality" we have in America. China has 1.3 billion people, probably 10 million are extremely well off, another 200 million are pretty decent, and 1.1 BILLION are just as poor as you can possibly be. Sooner or later there will be cultural enlightenment which will spell vast problems for that country. They are extremely ambitious, but unfortunately don't have a social structure to support it. There is still a complete generation there that has and was prohibited from education and reversing that trend is very difficult. As a broad generalization, they are extremely good at copying, but utterly helpless at innovation. There are exceptions to the rule, but as a broad stereotype at least in my experiences, it's true. India on the other hand is nearly the opposite. Incredible education system, democratic government, still a quite poor infrastructure system and again, too damn many people. The IT field there is unbelievable with people hopping from job to job to job much like the US in the late 90's doubling or tripling their salaries in a matter of a year or two.
I think its super interesting that you all mention India in the same breath as China.. its an interesting comparasion.
Although you are correct that in general the education in IN is superior, that is rapidly changing in China, and there is no reason to believe that China will not accelerate beyond China in coming years.
PRC centraized control over resources and programs allows them to address and rectify issues far more rapidly than India- I believe that in the long run this will push them well ahead of India. Democracy is slow and inefficient. In a society of billions, with resource crunches and no particular cultural value placed on individual expressive freedoms, China's system will provide far better in the near term than IN democracy is.
Without getting into the morality of the issue, look at the population controls that China has been able to institute that IN can't come close too. China's population growth has leveled, whereas there is little hope that IN will be able to control it and provide for a skyrocketing population.
The scale argument just doesnt work. The US was 10x larger than any European country at the turn of the century and most made teh same scale arguments about the US ability to provide and bridge the wealth gap.
Here is the thing- yes, urban areas are getting richer faster than rural areas. The average rural income has doubled since 1990, and the average urban income increased nearly ten-fold. Although there may be some resentment that ones neighbors are getting richer faster, EVERONE IS GETTING RICHER. so long as this is the trend, people will not risk thier demonstrably increasing wealth to fight for more wealt, beyond a few grumblings. Don't underestimate the power of national pride either- China is like the US in 1950 in that sense, but even more so. We are in this together, blazing a new world...
China has the necessary central government controls to do things faster and more efficiently than any other country on earth...and although corruption exists, the Party recognises that its legitimacy rests on people getting richer- witness recent central gov't crackdowns on provincial corruption.
Say what you want about inefficiency, but iff experience has taught me anything, the chinese in insatiably practical - you have to work things thier way, but they will get worked. So long as thier system works for them, it will be us Laowai's adjusting. And as more and more are educated abroad and work in FDI generated companies, well management will come to be a practical hybrid...
Call be crazy, but I am glad I speak Chinese...barring huge fuckups the Chinese have a fantastic system of testing new policies, gradually and efficiently putting them in place, and the top-down ability to refine as needed.
I can agree with much of your thoughts there. It is none the less tough for most westerners to understand how that 'system' works. It is defintely a different ball game they play on the other side of the world - our rules don't always work the best there.
This may be a stupid questions ... but you are not Chinese correct? (in reference to you knowing how to speak Chinese).
I can agree with much of your thoughts there. It is none the less tough for most westerners to understand how that 'system' works. It is defintely a different ball game they play on the other side of the world - our rules don't always work the best there.
This may be a stupid questions ... but you are not Chinese correct? (in reference to you knowing how to speak Chinese).
C'mon man, her handle is "irishworld" and she has D-cups.
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